Bab el-Mandeb: Oil, Bitcoin, or... what are the consequences for the economy?

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September 11, 2026Mattis Meichler

Bab el-Mandeb, a strategic lock for global trade

Last night, Houthi forces took control of several strategic positions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including Hisn Murad, located at its narrowest point. This advance follows the capture of the port of Mokha, Dhubab, and the island of Zuqar in less than 24 hours. According to the same source, several hundred Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) officers are supporting Yemeni fighters to secure this major maritime route.

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The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the main passage points for global trade. About 25 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, it separates the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa and connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It thus forms the essential passage between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean for a large part of maritime traffic between Europe and Asia.

BREAKING: Yemen's Houthis have now taken Hisn Murad, the point on the Yemeni coast where the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is at its narrowest, 25 kilometers across, completing their takeover of the Red Sea coast along the strait within 24 hours after seizing Mocha, Dhubab and Zuqar... pic.twitter.com/ARsSa0Rgoh

--- The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 11, 2026

This takeover occurs in a particularly tense context. Since last February, the Strait of Hormuz, located at the other end of the Arabian Peninsula, has already been largely closed to oil traffic. Part of the flows had been redirected to the Red Sea. With Bab el-Mandeb now threatened in turn, Europe and global markets are facing simultaneous pressure on two of the region's main energy and trade corridors.

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A cascading shock on oil and diesel

The consequences on energy markets are immediate. The price of American oil is approaching $105 a barrel, and the United States is facing a diesel shortage that has pushed pump prices above $6 a gallon for the first time in history, a 74% increase over the last nine months.

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The cost of maritime transport is also skyrocketing. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET), which tracks oil freight rates, has seen a staggering increase of 6,200% over the past fifteen months. The cost of transporting a barrel has risen from $3 to over $14 since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, each barrel delivered to Asia now costs significantly more, regardless of its initial price.

BREAKING: The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF ($BWET) is up 6200% in the last 15 months.

BWET tracks crude oil tanker freight rates, and it exploded once the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed in February 2026.

Oil transport costs have jumped from $3 a barrel to over $14, as... pic.twitter.com/0pMCWhLreR

--- Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) September 10, 2026

Another cause for concern is that Sentinel-3 satellite imagery has detected a massive fire nearly 100 kilometers long above the Saudi East-West pipeline, between Medina and Mahd adh Dhahab. This pipeline is the only export route for the kingdom that does not pass through Hormuz. If it is confirmed to have been affected, Saudi Arabia would lose its last outlet for its crude oil.

Food and Commodity Inflation

The shock is not limited to energy. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks ten key agricultural commodities, surged by over 13% in August, marking its largest monthly increase since July 2012. The global food price index rose by 1.9% over the month, reaching its highest level since December 2022.

Every component is rising, with sugar soaring by 11.9% and wheat increasing by 15% over twelve months. A significant portion of these flows passes through Suez, and thus through Bab el-Mandeb. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope extends journeys by two to three weeks and significantly increases logistics costs, which is reflected in final prices.

For French and European consumers, this means additional pressure on pump prices, food, and all products imported from Asia. Some observers even mention a liter costing 3 euros in France by the end of the year if the situation does not stabilize. However, this scenario is contested by several analysts who remind that fixed taxes account for 55 to 60% of the pump price.

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Gold, a Safe Haven Amid Rising Inflation

Beyond energy and food, the entire price structure is under pressure. When maritime freight, insurance, and energy costs rise simultaneously, the effect spreads throughout the economy. Imported manufactured goods from Asia, electronics, textiles, and industrial components see their production costs increase. Companies then have two options: absorb the increase in their margins or pass it on to the consumer. Historically, the latter prevails.

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This dynamic explains the rise in inflation expectations in the United States, fueled by the increase in crude oil and diesel prices. Imported inflation is particularly difficult for a central bank to combat, as it does not depend on domestic demand. As a result, interest rates are likely to remain high for longer, which weighs on credit, real estate, and investment.

In this context, safe-haven assets are regaining their appeal. Gold is fully playing its role as a defensive asset during periods of geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation. Industrial commodities like copper and aluminum, which are heavily reliant on maritime transport, are also experiencing upward pressures.

For French savers, this reinforces the interest in diversifying between physical gold, defensive stocks, and alternative assets.
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What impact on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies?

Historically, major geopolitical shocks first weigh on risky assets. During the American strikes against Iran at the beginning of the month, the price of Bitcoin fell below $78,000, while oil soared and Wall Street retreated.

A sustained rise in oil prices fuels inflation, prompting central banks to maintain high rates, thus depriving markets of liquidity. Bitcoin, like technology stocks, remains very sensitive to monetary conditions. In the short term, the correlation is rather downward.

👉 On the same topic -- Strikes on Iran: what impact on Bitcoin, stocks, oil, and gold?

In the medium term, the narrative changes. If inflation becomes structural and confidence in fiat currencies erodes, Bitcoin may regain its status as an alternative safe-haven asset alongside gold. The current crisis also highlights the practical utility of cryptocurrencies in sanctioned or tense areas, as shown by the imposition of Bitcoin payments to transit through Hormuz. The sanctions aspect is also tightening, with a U.S. Treasury that can now target any crypto actor linked to Iran.

What are the prospects for the coming months?

Three scenarios are emerging. The first, optimistic, would see a coalition military intervention quickly reopen the strait. However, the Saudi air campaigns conducted since 2015 remind us that dislodging the Houthis from mountainous terrain they control is extremely complex.

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The second scenario, median, involves a massive detour around the Cape of Good Hope. This would sustainably drive up prices but avoid a collapse of supply chains. The third scenario, the darkest, would see Iran and the Houthis maintain the dual closure of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait for several months, with Brent potentially exceeding $150 according to some market analysts.

For investors, this period calls for caution and diversification. Traditional safe-haven assets like gold, measured exposure to commodities, and close monitoring of inflation indicators will be crucial in the coming months. Bitcoin, for its part, will likely oscillate between its status as a risky asset in the short term and its promise of protection against monetary depreciation in the longer term.

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Sources: The Hormuz Letter, Barchart, Bull Theory, The Kobeissi Letter, OilPrice.com, Cédric Labrousse, Le Temps, NBC News
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Mattis Meichler310 articles
A journalist passionate about Blockchain, the Web3 ecosystem, and Digital Art, I chronicle the evolution of these emerging sectors.