Increased Likelihood of the UK Returning the Falklands to Argentina
The probabilities on Polymarket regarding an announcement of the transfer of sovereignty of the Falkland Islands from the United Kingdom to Argentina have increased. The metric for the contract <<UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?>> rose from 2.9% on August 30 to 4.9% on September 3, currently standing at 4% at the time of publication. This movement occurred ahead of Argentine President Javier Milei's speech, in which he reaffirmed that <<the Falklands are Argentine, by history and by right>>. Milei also criticized the offshore oil project Sea Lion, stating that Argentina <
-- Price
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